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Slip: TxODDS prediction markets and settlement

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Core idea

Slip is a variable-stake parimutuel football market on Solana. A creator chooses a TxLINE fixture and writes a supported market in natural language. Slip compiles that Rulebook into one canonical TxLINE expression and two to five complete outcomes. Users stake a real six-decimal devnet SPL test token; pool weights determine implied probabilities. After the match, a permissionless resolver submits TxLINE’s stat proof. The program independently walks the Merkle proof and compares the reconstructed root with TxLINE’s daily_scores_roots PDA. It then records the winning outcome and lets winners claim a proportional share of the net pool.

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Business and user value

  • one understandable market model instead of separate bet and pool products;
  • no bookmaker or external market maker sets prices;
  • markets cover result, goals, corners, cards, handicaps, totals, and period variants;
  • the Rulebook exposes the exact keys and outcome bands before funds move;
  • one-sided, winner-empty, and timeout paths return stakes;
  • settlement is permissionless and deterministic.

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Technical highlights

  • Anchor 0.32.1 Solana program with market-owned SPL vaults;
  • two-to-five outcomes and variable stakes;
  • integer-only fee, tip, odds, and payout arithmetic;
  • independently reconstructed TxLINE stat-to-daily-root proof path;
  • terminal-phase and proof-timestamp enforcement;
  • AI SDK structured-output Rulebook compiler followed by deterministic TxLINE validation;
  • browser-safe @slip/sdk@0.2.0 Kit client with isolated /ai and /txline server entry points;
  • permissionless keeper with durable backoff and terminal-settlement priority;
  • Framework Kit wallet simulation, signing, and confirmation in the web app;
  • FullTime conversation → five-option poll → exact-label Rulebook review → verified market flow;
  • real Surfpool tests using SBF deployment and SPL token transfers.

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TxLINE surfaces used

TxLINE is the primary source for fixtures and settlement truth. TxLINE’s internal credit token is not used for wagering or payouts. The settlement asset is the dedicated devnet SPL test mint 9GGUMXL…MRnj; it is not presented as issuer-backed USDT.

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Verification

The program checks SHA-256 stat leaves, positional proof nodes, the tagged fixture-summary leaf, the epoch-day PDA, the five-minute root slot, fixture identity, stat keys, optional second stat, terminal phase, and resolution timestamp. Invalid proofs revert. A valid proof cannot redirect escrow. The automated matrix drives public Kit instructions through Surfpool and covers five-outcome corners, 1X2, multiple real signers and different stake sizes, deadlines, invalid Terms, fee and tip routing, proportional payout, losing and double claims, one-sided voids, and timeout refunds. FullTime installs only the provenance-recorded packed SDK and proves authenticated source-writer attachment plus real HyperDHT/Corestore/Autobase replication of the closed market reference. The live Groq suite covers binary goals, three-outcome match result, five-outcome corners, period-specific cards, and rejection of unsupported player and first-event markets against both openai/gpt-oss-120b and qwen/qwen3.6-27b. This is real provider evidence, not a canned compiler path. On July 19, a fresh TxLINE free-tier subscription and token activation succeeded. The live SDK fixture test passed, and the independent R1 verifier reproduced the anchored devnet daily root for France–Morocco fixture 18209181: terminal sequence 1114 for goals and corners plus sequence 1099 for the preceding root slot, 3/3 byte-for-byte. The program link identifies the unified-only deployment. The real two-wallet devnet lifecycle and authenticated public market projection pass. The required hosted app/API URL, demo-video link, and public-repository link remain submission blockers; do not replace them with local-only evidence.